Department of Statistical Science
Duke University
presents:
Lara Wolfson
ljwolfso@setosa.uwaterloo.ca
Department of Statistics & Actuarial Science
University of Waterloo
"Experiences in Elicitation"
Abstract: Elicitation of expert opinion is becoming increasingly important in the elicitation of prior distributions. In this talk, I will review the psychology of elicitation and then give an overview of some currently available elicitation methods, including elicitation methods for the beta-binomial model, the normal linear model, AR(1) time series models, and the exponential-gamma model, among others.
The primary focus of the remaining discussion is on the distinction between "general" elicitation methods for a class of problems, and "application-specific" methods which are useful only once. Examples of both types of elicitation are given, along with a discussion about general vs. application specific methods, and predictive vs. structural elicitation.
Aspects of this work are joint with J. Kadane, N. Chan, and B. Daponte.
January 24, 1997
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
116 Old Chem Bldg. Any questions concerning the seminar may be addressed to Cheryl McGhee @ [919] 684-8029 or e-mail cheryl@stat.duke.edu. Please contact the author(s) directly for reprints etc.